“六个月的禁售期到了 ，从外部实业环境和大盘情况，大股东没有动力来抛售所持的股份 。”我这样回复彭博社调研 。

“当时的 禁售措施是必需的 ，效果不能单看这一个措施 ，另外到期应该不会继续禁令，而会恢复市场自我调节的功能。不能排除，某种情况下，将来再次使用此类措施。”

“估值过高的创业板大股东和 科技类上市公司 ，大股东可能抛售一部分股份的动力。但影响不大，而且制约条件非常多 ，比如银行的质押协议等等 。”

附全文 。

China Seen Ending Share Sale Ban That Drew Foreign Scorn (1)

2015-12-30 02:58:43.355 GMT

By Bloomberg News

     (Bloomberg) -- China stock investors are about to find out

whether a budding equities recovery can cope with the end of a

sales ban that’s kept an estimated $185 billion of shares off

the market.

     All seven strategists and fund managers surveyed by

Bloomberg say it can, with those respondents expecting

regulators to allow major shareholders to sell their investments

when a six-month ban imposed at the height of the stock crash

expires Jan. 8.

     The measure drew criticism at the time from foreign

investors including Templeton Emerging Markets Group and UBS

Wealth Management, who saw the intervention as a step too far as

authorities struggled to stem a $5 trillion rout. Since the ban

started, volatility has fallen by more than half and the

Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded 22 percent from its

August low.

     “The market is strong enough to withstand the possible

sales," said Zhang Gang, a strategist with Central China

Securities Co. in Shanghai. “Investors are turning more

optimistic.”

     Still, Zhang and Baptized Capital’s Yin Ming see risks for

small-cap and technology shares once the ban is lifted after the

companies outperformed the rest of the market during the

rebound.

     The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced July 8

that investors with holdings exceeding 5 percent as well as

corporate executives and directors would be prohibited from

selling stakes for six months. The rule, which followed the

suspension of initial public offerings and curbs on short-

selling, was intended to stabilize capital markets amid an

“unreasonable plunge” in share prices, according to the

securities regulator. The CSRC did not immediately respond to a

faxed request.

     At that point, a 32 percent plunge by the Shanghai

Composite from the previous month’s peak had wiped out almost $4

trillion in market value, with the heaviest losses sustained by

new investors who opened millions of accounts leading up to the

peak.

     A degree of normalcy has returned to the world’s second-

largest equity market. A gauge of 50-day price swings has fallen

to the lowest level in seven months, while the Shanghai

Composite is poised for the best performance among major global

indexes this quarter. Regulators have removed some support

measures, including the halt on IPOs, and signs of state buying

has waned. To reduce the need for such extreme intervention

again, China’s two exchanges will implement a circuit-breaker

system from the start of 2016.

     “The market is in a much better shape than a few months

ago,” said Gerry Alfonso, a sales trader at Shenwan Hongyuan

Group Co. in Shanghai. “While the market has not fully

normalized yet, there are some positive indications such as the

market absorbing relatively well the new round of IPOs.”

     The Shanghai Composite rose 0.2 percent at 10:56 a.m. local

time.

                        Foreigners Sell

     Goldman Sachs Group Co. estimates the ban affected

investors with over 1.2 trillion yuan ($185 billion) of holdings

and lifting the restriction may create a "liquidity risk,"

according to a Dec. 3 note. Regulators may take steps to limit

selling by stockholders and company executives, which could

otherwise amount to a net 350 billion yuan in the first quarter,

China International Capital Corp. says.

     "Regulators may introduce policies to mitigate or offset

the pressure, such as limiting the size and pace of share sales

or arranging preparatory funds," Hanfeng Wang, a Beijing-based

analyst at CICC, wrote in a note dated Dec. 28. "Although an

extension of the ban on share sales is possible, the possibility

is relatively low as bailout policies are withdrawn gradually."

     Since the end of June, the CSRC imposed more than 200

million yuan worth of fines on at least 25 shareholders who

"unlawfully cut their stakes," according to Bloomberg

calculations based on the regulator’s announcements.

                     Technology Vulnerable

     Foreign investors have been reluctant to dive back in.

Global money managers cut their holdings of mainland shares by

about 5 percent in the first nine months of 2015, even after

authorities made it easier than ever to bring money into the

country.

    Technology companies are most vulnerable to a sell-off once

the ban is removed, says Yin, vice president of Shanghai-based

investment firm Baptized Capital.

     The ChiNext small-cap index, dominated by technology and

consumer companies, trades at 45 times estimated 12-month

earnings after jumping 45 percent since Aug. 26. The Shanghai

Composite is valued at 18.7 times.

     “ChiNext companies might be impacted the most,” said Yin.

“These companies haven’t been listed for long and it’s uncertain

whether their high valuations are sustainable.”

End Seen

     For Sun Jianbo, a strategist with China Galaxy Securities

Co., the limits imposed on shareholders have served their

purpose and shouldn’t be extended.

     “The ban was implemented to ensure market stability under

urgent circumstances and now that these circumstances have

passed, the shareholding reductions should be allowed,” Sun

said. “I don’t see a high probability of massive sales after the

ban is lifted.”

     Baptized Capital, Bocom International Holdings Co., Central

China Securities, China Galaxy Securities, HFT Investment

Management Co., Jinkuang Investment and Shenwan Hongyuan

participated in the survey.